NBA Fantasy Strategy: Start 'Em or Sit 'Em for October 30th

We will identify several favorable positional matchups to target in your Yahoo Fantasy lineups, as well as three players to avoid due to various factors such as salary constraints or unfavorable circumstances.

Guards

LaMelo Ball, CHA vs. TOR ($44)

Ball has started the new season off with a bang, averaging 50.4 Yahoo points per contest over his first four games. Ball has already flashed a ceiling north of 60 Yahoo points and is shooting a career-best 41.7% from 3-point range on a whopping 12.0 attempts from behind the arc in his first three games. Although Toronto has made shooting difficult for point guards in the early going this season, Ball’s usage and across-the-stat-sheet upside make him a potential steal, even at his elevated salary.

Jaylen Brown, BOS at IND ($37)

Brown has opened the season in typically reliable fashion, averaging 42.4 Yahoo points over his first four games while scoring no fewer than 34.9 Yahoo points in any contest. The star wing has accomplished those numbers despite shooting just 40.7%, a figure that’s naturally bound to rise given Brown’s body of work throughout his career. It’s also worth noting the majority of his efficiency issues have come from in front of the arc, as he’s drained 39.3% of his 3-point attempts. Given the ultra-safe floor and expansive ceiling, Brown is an excellent way to avoid breaking your bank while giving yourself a shot at a standout fantasy return.

ALSO CONSIDER: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC vs. SA ($55); Dennis Schröder, BKN at MEM ($23)

Guard to Avoid

Donovan Mitchell, CLE vs. LAL ($45)

The issue here with Mitchell is primarily salary. The fact is, he just hasn’t quite lived up to it yet this season. The standout guard has been at 37.9 Yahoo points or fewer in three of his first four games, posting solid numbers that are not necessarily the level you’d want to see if investing this highly at one position. The Lakers are allowing a middling 44.4% shooting to two-guards thus far as well, and options below Mitchell in salary that could well outproduce him include Ball (listed above), Tyrese Maxey ($43) and Trae Young ($41).

Forwards 

Rui Hachimura, LAL at CLE ($20)

Hachimura has far exceeded expectations in the early going, and he’s done so with the help of elite 61.5% 3-point shooting. That number will come down eventually by a significant amount, but for the moment, the veteran forward is riding a hot hand and is averaging 33.1 Yahoo points per contest, making his salary all the more eye-catching. Hachimura has also stepped up his rebounding, pulling down between seven and 10 boards in each of his last three games. Despite sharing the floor with plenty of high-usage options, Hachimura has found his way to a solid 14.3 shot attempts per contest in his starting role and could certainly deliver a strong return on investment again Wednesday.

Jeremy Sochan, SA at OKC ($22)

Sochan is a prime example of a player who’s outperformed his salary to date, as the third-year pro has opened the season averaging 34.3 Yahoo points per game while shooting a career-best 52.3%. The 2022 first-round pick has also upped his aggressiveness offensively, taking a career-high 14.7 shot attempts per contest while pulling down 9.0 rebounds per game. Considering how integral he’s been to the Spurs on both ends of the floor, Sochan could deliver very strong value relative to salary Wednesday.

ALSO CONSIDER: Paolo Banchero, ORL at CHI ($41)

Forward to Avoid

Deni Avdija, POR at LAC ($31)

Avdija has gotten off to an unremarkable start in his new Portland digs, averaging 9.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.5 steals while shooting an abysmal 28.9% thus far. He’s averaged 25.9 Yahoo points per game thanks to solid stats in non-scoring categories, but this is still too high a salary for a player in this deep of a shooting funk. While Avdija will undoubtedly boost his numbers over time, there are better ways to allocate salary Wednesday.

Centers

Chet Holmgren, SA vs. OKC ($38)

Holmgren’s salary is $16 below Anthony Davis atop the center player pool, yet he’s averaging an elite 57.4 Yahoo points per game over his first three contests. The 7-foot-2 star has not wasted time racking up the rebounds (13.0 per game) and blocks (4.0 blocks per game) in the early going, but he’s also averaging 23.7 points and 1.3 steals per contest. Holmgren has essentially been matchup-proof, and despite the daunting presence of Victor Wembanyama down low Wednesday, the fact Holmgren has been able to significantly outpace his current salary makes him highly worthy of a look. 

Andre Drummond, PHI vs. DET ($26)

Drummond continues to hold down the starting center role during Joel Embiid’s (knee) season-opening absence and is doing so with plenty of success. The veteran is averaging 32.8 Yahoo points per game over his first three contests, and he’s come just a point and a rebound short in two games of opening the season with three consecutive double-doubles. The big man is back in play again Wednesday against his original team and is coming in with two full days of rest after logging 37 minutes against the Pacers on Sunday.

ALSO CONSIDER: Anthony Davis, LAL at CLE ($54)

Center to Avoid

Jonas Valančiūnas, WAS vs. ATL ($27)

Valančiūnas is sporting a salary commensurate to his production from prior years, as he’s been under 20 Yahoo points in two straight and is averaging just 22.1 Yahoo points per contest thus far on the season. The veteran big man scored a modest 19.8 Yahoo points in a matchup against the Hawks on Monday, and given he’s yet to top the 22 minutes he logged in that game, I’m not comfortable laying out a salary close to $30 for him.